A New Phase for the Trump Presidency

The first phase of the Trump presidency has come to an end. The early days of his second term were marked by a flurry of frenetic action that signaled an invincible, impermeable president. With his unilateral approach to governing embodied by using executive orders, he seemed poised to fundamentally remake the workings and delicate balances that characterize the US political system. His opponents believed, and still believe, that he risks unraveling American democracy from within. The first sequence of this new presidency will end up shaping both institutional structures and political norms in ways that we have only begun to see. In the meantime, a new phase is beginning, one that places Trump at the center of a game of constraints and political headwinds that will require a more tactical approach as Republican and Democratic adversaries - emboldened - grow more assertive in the face of a fallible Trump 2.

Beyond the institutional repercussions, not yet fully known, are the normative changes to American politics and society that President Trump and his team have begun to operate. Political violence of varying degrees represents another important normative change for which Donald Trump is both a victim and perpetrator since his surge onto the political scene in 2016. It arises in a fertile climate of deep and persistent polarization, out of the corrosion of national unity and against the backdrop of a disappearing collective ambition. Trump’s decision to deploy the National Guard as a response to largely peaceful anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles, without the express request of California Governor Gavin Newsom, constitutes one normative breach. The last president to deploy the Guard against the will of a state’s governor was Lyndon Johnson who, in 1965, sent the National Guard to Alabama, not to repress protests but to protect Civil Rights activists from violence during their march from Selma to Montgomery. Seeing the military participate in ICE immigration raids and repression of protests also constituted a new threshold in which the presence of US military engaged in the streets moves one step closer to normalization. Trump did little to quell the flames. On the contrary, he doubled down on threats. Of the LA protestors: "insurrectionists;" "I promise you they will be hit harder than they have ever been hit before." At the prospect of arresting Governor Newsom: "I would do it."

The National Guard presence in California and the scenes of escalating disorder were just one of several violences to strike the United States that same week. During the LA protest sequence, other moments of previously unthinkable violence occurred. On June 12, US Senator Alex Padilla, Democrat of California, was forcibly removed by police from a press conference given by homeland security secretary Kristi Noem. In the hallway outside the event, the MIT graduate was told to get on his knees, forced onto his stomach against the ground, then handcuffed. Two days later, on June 14, Minnesota State Representative, Democrat Melissa Hortman, was assassinated, along with her husband, in her home by a man who voted for Donald Trump and carried with him a list of the names of 70 people he also intended to kill (elected officials, community leaders, abortion providers among them). Minutes before the killing, the assailant attempted to kill another Democratic State representative, John Hoffman, and his wife, in their home and who remain in critical condition. Representative Hoffman was shot nine times by the assailant. 
 
That same day, June 14, Donald Trump organized a military parade to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the United States Army, which coincided with his 79th birthday. Approximately 250,000 people were in attendance in Washington that day. At the same time, a nationwide protest, No Kings, took place with more than 2,000 marches in each of the 50 states. With more than 5 million participants, No Kings was the single largest one-day protest in American history, topping the previous record holder - the Women’s March that took place the day after Trump’s first inauguration in 2017.

Immigration remains Trump’s strongest issue with a narrow 51% margin of Americans saying they approve of his policy. In the wake of the Los Angeles protests, some polling indicates he lost about 5 percentage points. Illegal immigration remains a mobilizing issue for his base, which is more likely than non-Trump voters to believe that it is the top priority issue after the economy. If immigration is a relative bright spot, Trump has more to be concerned about with negative perception of the economy.
 
With increasing worry over the growing likelihood of a recession, stubbornly high prices, and inflation stagnation, 58% of Americans believe the economy is bad, and 54% believe it is getting worse; while 34% declare that their personal financial situation has gotten worse over the last year, and 45% say they have experienced no change during that time. A small majority, 51%, believe that Trump’s tariffs will worsen their situation over the coming year. The cornerstone of the president’s agenda, his budget - the "One Big Beautiful Bill" - is highly unpopular among voters across parties. About 27% of registered voters approve of it, while 53% oppose it. Among independent voters, only 20% support the bill, and 57% oppose it. More than half of voters said the bill would have a negative effect on the country, and just over 2 out of 10 adults agree with the bill’s proposal to change "tax, spending, and Medicaid" policies. Instead, over half of adults polled indicate that their priority is maintaining current spending levels on programs like Medicaid, which the bill aims to cut. Estimates suggest that cuts to Medicaid would lead to 8 to 10 million Americans losing their healthcare, which 63% of Americans find unacceptable.
 
Americans also disapprove, 56% to 44%, of the president’s decision to take military action in Iran. Nearly 6 out of 10 believe the US strikes will make Iran more of a threat to America and its interests. Democrats and Republicans hold starkly polarized views, but 6 out of 10 Independents - capable of being swayed in their vote - both disapprove of the action and believe it increases the Iranian threat. Less than 4 out of 10 Independents have a moderate to a great deal of confidence in President Trump to make the correct choices with regards to the use of force in Iran, and more than 6 out of 10 believe that the president needs Congressional authority before using force there. Even if Republicans overwhelmingly fell in line after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites, influential MAGA voices like Tucker Carlson, spoke openly about their opposition to US intervention on the "America First" grounds that Iran is not America’s fight. This dissent among MAGA movement leaders would have seemed unthinkable in the early weeks of the current administration. It also echoed MAGA voters’ anger, many of whom took to social media to express their feeling of deception or betrayal.

Voters are not the only source of increasing pressure on the administration. While Democrats are struggling to mount a coherent and credible opposition, Republican officials are publicly voicing their disagreement with the president’s agenda. Months ago, Republican senator from Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, expressed fear of speaking out against the administration because of the real risk of retribution. Some of that fear has certainly been allayed by the failure of Elon Musk to deliver on the DOGE promise, his very public falling out with Trump, and his subsequent pledge to stop funding politicians. Another source of political pushback comes from the very real prospect of electoral losses during next year’s midterm elections, particularly due to support of the president’s Big Beautiful budget. Republican Representatives Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Warren Davidson of Ohio voted against Trump’s budget bill when it passed through the House, Andy Harris of Maryland merely voted "present" which would have helped defeat the bill in case of a tied vote. There are concerns for some Republican House members, as well as some of their Senate counterparts up for reelection next year, that supporting the budget bill could cost them their seats and, ultimately, their Congressional majorities. Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska said that he will not follow his party "off the cliff" by voting for the proposal.

For those Republicans who see Medicaid as a dealbreaker for constituents - like Republican Senator from Maine, Susan Collins, up for reelection in 2026 - there is a sense of urgency to mark dissent from the administration. For other Republicans, opposition to the bill is rooted in deeper conservative ideology, namely reining in spending and bringing down the $36.2T national debt. Representative Massie has been very vocal in his criticism of Trump’s budget as being a "ticking debt bomb." Republican Senators Rand Paul (also of Kentucky), Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, and Murkowski are among those who have criticized the bill. Buffered by their six-year terms, these Senators may feel protected from the potential consequences of the president’s anger and thus remain faithful to principles of fiscal conservatism, constituent preferences, and the long-term health of America’s economy.

Now that the initial flood of executive action has abated, this administration finds itself with eroding confidence and increasing displeasure from American voters, subject to open dissent from both the Republican House and Senate delegations, and staring down midterm elections in fall 2026. This may not temper the president’s strongest ardors, but it does signify a presidency that will not remain immune from external constraints.

Copyright Mandel NGAN / AFP
Donald Trump and his wife Melania at the June 14, 2025 military parade in Washington.